Is wine recession proof?
posted by philip in Wine
Clearly this is a hot topic, and something we think about a lot and try to infer data, based on site usage figures and other metrics.
Starting with Snooth. We saw our strongest week of traffic last week in over 4 months and our traffic has picked up over 20% in the last 60 days. We’re a young site and hardly representative of the dollars spent, so I wouldn’t use that data for anything, however, people are still searching for wine, so that’s a good start. Anecdotal evidence supports this.
Compared to the spirits industry, wine is rock solid. Users have been migrating from spirits to wine for several years now and the winery businesses are the jewels in the major drinks company’s portfolios.
“Constellation Brands, the world’s biggest wine company by volume, said three weeks ago its first-quarter profit jumped 50 percent.” That combined with UST (snuff tobacco giant), who said that it was thanks to their wine portfolio that they limited their decline in profits as much as they did, presents some solid cases for the wine industry’s health.
On the flip side, we have data trickling in telling us that on-premise sales are suffering. Is this really a surprise? When times are tight, people are clearly going to be dining out less, and probably less likely to be springing for wine at triple the retail value. The same article references “off-premise” sales (grocery stores, liquor stores etc.) seeing just a 5% decline in sales over the past few weeks. It was a short study, over a limited number of participants in a single market, but ties in with Neilson’s predictions that wine might be “recession proof”.
This is backed up by the folks at Silicon Valley Bank who said that “wine is still an affordable luxury even in a bad economy. So while wine is not recession-proof — like electricity and visits to the doctor — people still continue to consume wine even during difficult times, and our experience is that wine continues to demonstrate volume growth.”
“Affordable Luxury” - I like that phrase, and although some may see wine as a ‘necessity’, for most of us, I think thats a the sweet spot. People who are buying $80 wines, probably can weather the recession, and for everyone else, while there may be a little trading down (I may buy $10 wines, instead of $14 wines) I still foresee people drinking a glass or two to unwind at the end of a long day.
